Games
Interest is closeness × quality × (1 + stakes + 0.35 × rivalry), never below 25 × rivalry.
It ranks games by how close
the model expects them to be, weighted by how good both teams are. A
pick’em scores highest, and among equally close games the better
matchup wins. Filter first, then sort — within a division the
quality term flattens and closeness does the work. Stakes then lift
the games that could move the playoff picture or a title race, and a
rivalry lifts its game by up to 35%. The floor keeps a lopsided
rivalry (say a 20-point line) from sinking to the bottom: the
strongest rivalries never score below 25. Hover the bar to see the
score before and after.
Why: the tags under each matchup say what makes a game worth
watching beyond the line — tap or hover them for the full note.
coin flip: line
under 3; one score: line 7 or less; top 25: both teams in
this week’s top 25; upset watch: the underdog wins at
least 35 in 100; playoff and title race: stakes of at
least 0.15; rivalry: a named rivalry. Rivalry strength runs
from 0.4 (a multi-team series) to 1.0: 0.6 for a named rivalry, plus
0.2 for a trophy, plus up to 0.2 for a century of meetings.
Stakes:
playoff picture,
conference title race. Hover for what an upset would change.
For each upcoming game the
projected postseason is rebuilt twice, once for each winner, each
winning by its usual margin. The difference between the two is
weighted by the chance of the upset. Playoff: a team entering the
projected field counts 1, a bye gained or lost 0.5, a change of bid
type 0.25. Title race: a new projected champion counts 1, each
title-game place that changes hands 0.5. A 30% upset that would
swap one team in the field scores 0.3. Shown, never modelled.
Line is the predicted margin from the home team’s point of
view; negative means the visitor is favoured.
Neutral-site games are
marked N and carry no home-field
adjustment.
Proj is the line split into a score, away first: the two
offences and defences set the total, and the gap is always the line
rounded to the nearest point.
The total comes from each
offence’s and defence’s opponent-adjusted EPA per play and
pace in earlier games. Grey scores use the average total for that
pairing of divisions instead — cross-division games, divisions
without play-by-play, and teams yet to play. A pick’em projects
a tie. Storytelling, not a second prediction: the line is the
prediction. Played games keep the line and projection from before
kickoff, in grey.
Division
Sort
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| Date | Matchup | Line | Win% | Proj | Score | Interest | Stakes |
|---|